Archive for the 'Bailout' Category

May72009

Help! Where can I plug in my umbilical cord?

I present to you Exhibit 1 titled: “EFFECT

Wall Street Journal Clip 1

And, now I present to you Exhibit 2 titled: “CAUSE

Wall Street Journal Clip 2

Sorry in advance for the small font size on the images.  These two news clippings, from Tuesday 5/5/09 of the Wall St. Journal show something that struck me as very funny and very sad.  Same paper, same day.  Unbelievable.

You may dispute this ‘causal’ determination - that spending nearly half the day eating and sleeping lead to economic decline and stagnation.  But, you can’t help but wonder if all the people in the unemployment line take their customary breaks for napping and eating.

One of my favorite authors, Dan Kennedy, once said:

“most people are running around with their umbilical cords in their hands looking for another place to plug it in.

Kennedy was referring to a marketing more effectively to consumers.  But to me, this perfectly sums up the mass amounts of people in developed nations across the globe that are lining up for a pull on the public teet.

At present, no place on earth exemplifies sucking on the government teet more than the countries of Western Europe.  God bless their food, art and rich culture of chain smoking - but take another gander at the first clipping.  If you can’t read it, here are some highlights:

  • it is anticipated that the EU economy will shrink by 4% in 2009
  • Fiscal deficits (large ones) for member nations
  • Unemployment is at 17% in Spain (the picture is of an unemployment line in Spain)

Scroll to the next clipping above (Sleeping Giant) and some of the gems you will find are as follows:

  • The French sleep more on average than any other nation - 530 minutes per day (8.83 hours)
  • Americans sleep for 518 minutes per day on average (8.63 hours)
  • Koreans sleep for 469 minutes per day on average (7.8 hours)
  • The French spend 2 hours and 15 minutes per day eating and drinking, Italians spend 1:54 and Spain 1:46 the U.S. spends 1:14 on average
  • France has mandatory 30 paid vacation days (government required) per year

Ok.  Let’s put this in the form of a game show question just for fun:

Q: The European Union is shrinking in terms of output and population and the best response to this ____?

A) Sleep more than anybody else in the world

B) Spend more time eating and drinking than anybody else in the world

C) A and B

D) Neither A nor B

5 seconds to buzz in…..3….2…1……if you said “C”give yourself a big pat on the back, you have just passed the qualifying exam to become a government official in France, Spain or Italy.

Now, I am all for balancing out your work with your personal life - I don’t take that away from anybody. But this is taking it to the extreme.  Kinda like the ‘no kid gets cut from the soccer team and everyone gets a trophy’ mindset that has gripped America in recent years.

What’s funny and sad about what these two short articles is that they unintentionally capture a culture in a few words that is quickly becoming accepted in a country you know…the USA.

In my previous post, I mentioned some of the Q/A session from the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder meeting.  During the meeting, Vice Chairman Charlie Munger said that he thought that American health care was going to eventually become very similar to that of Western Europe.  My view is that more things are going to be similar to Western Europe than just health care.

For those of you that haven’t noticed, the government bailout line that everyone from banks to auto companies is standing in looks a lot like the Spanish unemployment line from the WSJ article.

I fear that we will increasing live in a world where non-producers will live off of the productive work of others - invariably creating a negative economic effect that could lead to serious problems damaging living standards and retracting many years of productive capital and labor.  It will be very hard to tear people’s umbilical cords away from the mother ship they are plugging them into when the ship runs dry.

Apr22009

On the Record

For historical purposes, I would to be on the record for a few musings that I hope will find there way into Google’s search indexes so as to be preserved for my children to read one day (kind of like cryogenics for your thoughts).

Lately, I have been reflecting on the absolute madness of what is going on in virtually every market imaginable (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.).  One day, a hundred years from now, kids will be reading about this stuff in their history classes - or, perhaps having things beamed into their heads telepathically.  They will perhaps wonder: ‘what were they thinking?’ The overwhelming answer will be: “they weren’t”

My pipe dream for the day, which usually involves time travel or playing in the NFL, is that someone could get through to the pigs at the trough in the government before Old Major and  Napolean take over.

  • This bailout stuff is a bad idea - borrowing to de-leverage? does this sound a bit screwy to anyone? A Wall Street personality was on NPR the other day saying that if there was no bailout the recovery in banks would take 10 years.  My thought: “so…?”  All we are doing with this bailout stuff is creating more moral hazard, more future problems that perfectly embodies the spirit of “push it off to the next generation - at least we won’t be here for the shit storm” that has prevailed in recent years.
  • America will forever be addicted to leverage - two generations (soon to be three) have come of age where the culture of “buy now, pay later”, “you deserve it”, and “..but all the other kids have one!” is ubiquitous.  It’s hard to remove something from your DNA - it’s just kinda there.
  • Our country had many years of freedom and prosperity - both will diminish in the future.  However, we should be thankful that we had any at all - remember, several generations passed in countries like the former Soviet Bloc where subsistence and repression was a way of life.  More government control (by default if anything else with all of the spending and administration) means less freedom. More restricted markets mean less overall prosperity.
  • The size, scope and level of government intervention is analogous to pouring oil into the drinking water supply - America will soon resemble the nations of western Europe as they currently are - old, stodgy, bloated, bureaucratic and functionally obsolescent  in terms of creating higher standards of living and being a beacon for those with high aspirations.
  • The American Taxpayer will soon be an indentured servant all the way around - to his government, to foreign governments and to foreign and domestic corporations and financial institutions
  • The American Entrepreneur is being cast aside -when was the last time President Obama or any of these other so called political ‘leaders’ paid any  meaningful verbage or time to small businesses and entrepreneurs?  My question to them is: “where is your future tax base going to come from?” (you can’t tax the foreign companies and countries that are buying up America by the day Mr. Obama)  What will inevitably happen is that the entrepreneurs (and other producers) are going to be expected to pick up the slack for everybody else- all the government spending and programs will be heaped on the “producers’ by those that produce nothing - this makes me sick to my stomach. State and local governments take every chance they get to stomp and spit on small businesses - whether it is hiking their taxes, passing encumbering ordinances or taking land through eminent domain for “public good”.

I don’t want this to sound too much  like a whiny rant.  I generally hate it when people present problems and do not put forth solutions.  My solution is simple: when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is STOP DIGGING.

Feb142009

Sex and the Art of Over-Complicating - Part II

A few months ago, I wrote a post about how people tend to over-complicate things in all aspects of their lives. The main point I was trying to make in that post was that problem solving in your business/personal life is greatly complicated by the human tendency to make things more complicated than they really are.

The proverbial ‘mountain out of a molehill.

Alas, it is often said in budding or troubled relationships that “sex will just make things more complicated,” and there aren’t many times where this is not true.  Yet, people do it (no pun intended) anyway and the web of complexities is spun. I find this to be true in many other aspects of life.

This doesn’t affect just a few people, it affects virtually every one every day. In fact, it often goes to the next level.

I routinely come across situations that are made with the malicious intent to deceive people through over-complicating what is essentially a simple situation or simple problem.  You are wondering: why are you surprised by this? The fact is that I am not surprised by this myself (usually) but I am surprised how insidious and prevalent this problem is.

Through a brief reflection, I drummed up a few instances where over-complexity might be affecting you.

1. Wording in contracts/agreements, financial statements, warranties, etc.

Here’s a little experiment: go to Bank of America’s website and download their annual report.  Read through it for a few minutes and let me know how far you get into the footnotes before you drift off into never-never land.  This stuff is nearly impossible for the above average intelligence level person to read, let alone understand.  You might wonder why anyone that wasn’t a financial analyst or regulator would want to read this stuff, but that would be missing the point.  The point is, that the annual report is supposed to communicate business results and other relevant information to stakeholders (not just shareholders) to make decisions.  Decisions are impeded when the information needed to make them is clouded in a secret code of accountant and legal speak.

Take a look at the last legal contract you signed.  Maybe it was a lease for an apartment.  Maybe it was a contract for work to be done to your home.  Either way, I bet that if you compared the length and language to that of 20 years ago, you would be offended at the amount of trees killed and ink spilled in the modern creation.  There aren’t many things that really require a lawyer, if you get right down to it.  Our society has just created enormous complexities because a select few realize that by creating the complexity they can pull the wool over everyone else’s eyes for their own benefit.

Have you looked at your extended vehicle or iPod warranty lately?  If you haven’t, let me save you some time: if anything goes wrong with it, it’s probably your fault and not covered in the warranty.  In the rare, cataclysmic event that the thing that went wrong is really the fault of the manufacturer, it is your responsibility to prove it and if you do, you have to wait 8-12 weeks for your situation to be remedied.

You might discern that from reading the indefinite small print that we have all the product liability lawyers out there over the years for coming up with it to justify their billing.

2. Business Compliance with Government Regulators

Those of you that are business owners or managers will definitely know what I mean on this.   I know that “we don’t have it as bad in America as other countries” when it comes to Big Brother looking over our shoulder,  however, there is a difference between smart regulation (a registered oxymoron) and ribbons of red tape that do nothing but confuse and dillute value.  The last time I tried to set up a payroll (before I started outsourcing virtually all administrative tasks for my business), it took me several hours to weed through all of the paperwork necessary to get it started.  Once I got it started, it took several more hours each week to keep it up.  Then, to top it all off, when I ended it (sold business), it took at least a dozen more hours to shut it off.  I contined to get notices of delinquent taxes due from both federal and state regulatory bodies.

The million dollar question here is:  why can’t the damn payroll form be ONE PAGE?  Instead, it’s got to be maze of “check this box, then go here, check that box, go there, etc.” I don’t here anything being talked about in this enormous waste of taxpayer money (aka the Stimulus Bill) that will go toward making things easier and less complicated for business owners and managers to deal with the government.

If you’ve ever raised outside capital for a business (outside of family and friends), than you have likely come into contact with the securities law.  While raising capital for my real estate business several months ago, I became ensnared in the vagaries of how the federal and state governments intertwine, overlap and promulgate the Securities Act of 1933 and the Uniform Securites Act.

Now, don’t get me wrong: I see and understand that we need measures in place to protect the average person from the Charles Ponzi’s and Bernie Madoff’s of the world.  However, in the process of this the baby is often thrown out with the bath water. There is enough language  in all of these laws to virtually scare anyone but a securities lawyer away from doing anything with securities.  In case you didn’t notice, securities lawyers are some of the most expensive ones to hire.   Billable rates of the 600+ per hour are routine.  It is almost to the point where if  you aren’t raising over $10,000,000 at once that it isn’t worth it to raise capital from non-family and friends.  Is this really what we need in America to encourage entrepreneurship, creativity and innovation?  That no small businesses should raise small amounts of capital from outsiders?  What if there was a $500 per person limit? Or, increase the regulations in accordace with the amount of capital raised, etc?

I think that the over-complexities in this area create absolutely zero net economic benefit and, in fact, deduct from the creative capacities of American entrepreneurs.  Once again, a few people over-complicate to pull the wool over the eyes of the layman so that they may extract dollars from the layman’s pocket.

3. Dealing with Incentives and Incentive Clauses

Have you ever hired a commission sales person?  Have you ever tried to work with an employee or independent contractor who had ‘performance-based’ incentives?  If so, this will hit close to home.

Many moons ago, I worked as a sales person at GNC (General Nutrition Center) while in college.  It was the perfect job.  I got to make money, get a discount on vitamin supplements and read weightlifting and nutrition magazines in between customers.  On top of all of this, I was paid minimum wage plus commission.  Commissions were paid a set dollar amount for certain products sold.  At that time, GNC’s private label brands received higher commissions than the other brands and selling a ‘Gold Card’ (what was then a first Tuesday of the month 20% discount) was a high commission earner ($5 per card sold).

Now, let’s take a breath for a second and look at the incentive here.  What would a young guy do that was hungry to make a few bucks?  Sell the multi-vitamin that was $5 less to the customer or sell the product that was $5 more but has a $2 commission? You probably guessed right.  Sell the GNC brand multi-vitamin I did - boatloads of them.  I could have probably saved some of the customers more money, but that wouldn’t have made me any money.  The customers, most of them, were none the wiser.  They assumed that the suggestions I gave them were the ones that were best for them.

Ok, now, lets take a a look at a very famous and close-to-home example of a similar situation of incentives and the problems they can cause in your every day life: selling your home.

When most people sell their home, they hire a real estate agent.  The agent lists the house on the MLS, tells a bunch of people about it, shows it to prospective buyers, and so on.  Finally, they get an interested buyer.  You are asking $200,000 for your house.  The buyer offers $180,000.   What to do?

Your first inclination as seller might be to make a counter-offer or to pass and wait for an offer closer to your asking price.  But, your agent has other ideas.  The agent encourages you to take the offer, they mention that a better one might not come along for a while.  Here is what is going on in your agent’s mind:

Selling Price: $180,000

Commission (6%): $10,800

or…

Selling Price: $190,000

Commission (6%): $11,400

Unless the market is RED HOT, the agent is probably not going to want to jeopardize a sure-fire payday of $10,800 for a measly $600 gain.  However, the difference to you (the seller) is a $9,400 ($10,000 higher selling price less 6% commission).  This is the power of underestimating the complexities that come with incentives.  The agent has a strong vested interest in selling at $180,000 - and urges you to do the same.   Just like the GNC employee.

When you look at or encounter incentive-based situations in your everyday business or personal life, it would benefit you to slash through all the B.S. and look at the alignment of incentives.  If you are running into a problem with an employee, take a look at their incentives.  Most employees get paid to show up, do the job, and go home.  The business owner gets frustrated when the employee doesn’t go the extra mile, stay late, make the additional customer call.  The business owner further thinks that there may be some sort of moral problem or other issue.  The business owner spends valuable time thinking about the causes of the employees acting ‘at the margin’ when they need look no further than the incentive.

How about the issue causing the current ‘credit market crunch?’  Is is really a problem of indefinite causes (housing for everyone from the Clinton presidency, bad mortgage brokers, bad underwriters, shady appraisers, shady title companies, crooks, politicians, cheap money, etc.)?  I think it is simply a matter of what people were incentivized to do.  They were incentivized, at every level, to do exactly what they did.  There were no incentives for the behavior that would have led to an orderly market correction.  The guys on one side made billions while the guys paid to prevent it made thousands. The Wall St. guy goes home at 10:00 at night.  The Fed. regulator goes home at 5:00- do the math.

————–

As I descend from my soapbox. I feel a bit lighter of burden but strongly galvanized in a quest to seek simplicity when situations seem overly complex.  It has worked for me many times to strip as much of the B.S. away as I can and focus on the bare bones of the issue.  For example, when looking at a recent real estate deal, I found myself getting caught up in the probabilities of certain scenarios playing out; caught up with the variables in play and what would happen if A, B or C.  Suddenly, I stopped for a moment, shut off my computer, pulled out some scratch paper and a pencil, remembered some second grade math, came up with my number for the deal and my sanity promptly returned.  Like magic.

Give SIMPLE a shot.

Dec312008

Let it die with 2008

You got it right.  Party animal I am not.  It’s 11:15pm on New Year’s Eve and I find myself compelled to write a small piece in effort to put some amount of good karma into the universe to eliminate the lunacy that has increased in the financial, real estate and stock markets in the last four months.

The best example I can find to top it all off, I mean, the real icing on the cake - the GMAC bailout.  The red flags and bells and whistles going off for this one are astounding.  For this company to get $5 billon in government bailout money and to then turn around and offer 0% financing with that money to General Motors customers with sub-prime credit positively astounding. An interesting short take on the GMAC situation can be read here.

Apparently, moral hazard is now a hollow concept.

————————————————————

Propelling forward into 2009 - there are a few tenets that, in spite of economic conditions, war, government intervention and the like, should prove profitable for investors and entrepreneurs:

  •  irrational markets bring opportunties to patient investors- whether panic selllig in real estate, stocks or bonds, the time to pick up great deals is to buy when others must sell
  • tough economic conditions force weaker and marginal players out-this is good news if you can keep swimming
  • new opportunities are opening up - technologies and innovations are stil coming down the pipe
  • it is good to be alive - I just like to throw this one in there for perspective

In a slight departure from 2008, I will be broadening my asset classes for investment in 2009.  I have been increasingly scaling back my consulting company and focusing more on equity investments and some busines acquisition deals.  I am still very excited about real estate, though a little bit more on the commercial side now than at any other time.  Deals are literaly falling from the sky.  A few of them, believe it or not, have hit me on the head.

Please stay tuned for more from Radical Wealth Accumulation in 2009.  Things are looking up.

Nov202008

Bailout’s Galore: The Pols and Their Wonderful Money Machine

Uh oh.

I couldn’t bite my tongue.  Last night, I briefly watched (God forbid) a clip on CNN about the Big 3Detroit auto CEO’s who had marched, hat in hand, to capitol hill to lay claim to their piece of the bailout pie.  The segment I watched was showing various clips of the senators speaking to these nutty Big 3 CEOs. During the middle of the segment I leapt out of my chair and launched on a tirade that would have been better saved for rallying a bunch of guys to throw tea into Boston Harbor.

Now, the content of CNN segment will soon (if it is not already) be famous. Can you guess what it is? Actually, you can read the whole story here.   The gist is this: the Big 3 CEO’s traveled to Washington D.C in private jets to ask for federal bailout money for their companies.  Of course, the symbolism of this is that the executives of the auto companies still have their heads in outer space, are out of touch with reality and, therefore, giving their companies money would be putting good money after bad.

This doesn’t seem like such an illogical conclusion, does it?  Oh, the hipocracy of it all!

Wait for it…YES, ELIZABETH, THIS IS THE BIG ONE!!

Now, Politicians completely divorced from reality is not something new.  But, in this case, they may be even more “Cuckhoo for Cocoa Puffs” than the Big 3 CEO’s.

How about the fact that we, as American taxpayers essentially gave the pols in Washington a multi-trillion dollar checkbook that they have effectively messed up beyond belief and comprehension (can anyone figure out the tax code or the medicare thing?)  The senators on the panel yesterday essentially screamed and railed against the audacity of the CEO’s to arrive on private jets and ask for federal bailout money for their companies.

Uh, excuse me Senators, but how well do you travel?  How many perks do you enjoy on the taxpayer dollar?  How much are you feeling the recent economic downturn your constituents are dealing with?

My guess is, Senators, that you travel well.  Since the median net worth of a U.S. Senator is $1.7 million (read more here at OpenSecrets.org, I am guessing that you aren’t feeling the ‘recession’ as much as your constituents.   I have to hand it to you, though, Senators, for it was a fine performance for the cameras.  You are “fighting for responsibility” and don’t want “these auto companies to come back here in 6 months again asking for more money so you can just fly your private jet home to your palace of gold!”

Never mind, Senators,  the $700 or so billion that will need to be printed like monopoly money to “fix” the financial system that teetered on the brink a few short weeks ago.  I think there is enough pork in that bill to cost you the vote of the animal rights lobby.

Senators, you act like the trade and budget decisions you have collectively made have had no impact on U.S. industry or jobs.  Yes, I guess you are free to choose when to use “fuzzy logic” and when no to.  Just as long as it fits.

Let me make sure I understand you, Senators:  it is OK to have an insane farm subsidy program for decades and light fire under Government Sponsored Entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to fuel a housing boom (and, by the way none of these industries have rich CEOs that travel on their own planes- wink).   But, these auto companies, hey “we’ve got to be responsible here.”  Uh-huh.

So, who wins in all of this you might be asking?  Many things are zero sum - somebody wins, somebody loses, so…drumroll please….

And the award for the biggest sucker holding the bag goes to…The American Taxpayer!

Tell them what they’ve won, Johhny!  

We’ll Ted, The American Taxpayer has won an all expenses paid trip into the bondage of debt for the better part of eternity! **Applause**  That’s right.  Not only will working men and women be in indentured servitude for their existence on earth, but future generations will also be eligible for the same lifetime benefit!  It’s a total prize package value of over $100,000,000,000,000.00!!!  **Applause**

applause