Archive for the 'economics' Category

Feb142009

Sex and the Art of Over-Complicating - Part II

A few months ago, I wrote a post about how people tend to over-complicate things in all aspects of their lives. The main point I was trying to make in that post was that problem solving in your business/personal life is greatly complicated by the human tendency to make things more complicated than they really are.

The proverbial ‘mountain out of a molehill.

Alas, it is often said in budding or troubled relationships that “sex will just make things more complicated,” and there aren’t many times where this is not true.  Yet, people do it (no pun intended) anyway and the web of complexities is spun. I find this to be true in many other aspects of life.

This doesn’t affect just a few people, it affects virtually every one every day. In fact, it often goes to the next level.

I routinely come across situations that are made with the malicious intent to deceive people through over-complicating what is essentially a simple situation or simple problem.  You are wondering: why are you surprised by this? The fact is that I am not surprised by this myself (usually) but I am surprised how insidious and prevalent this problem is.

Through a brief reflection, I drummed up a few instances where over-complexity might be affecting you.

1. Wording in contracts/agreements, financial statements, warranties, etc.

Here’s a little experiment: go to Bank of America’s website and download their annual report.  Read through it for a few minutes and let me know how far you get into the footnotes before you drift off into never-never land.  This stuff is nearly impossible for the above average intelligence level person to read, let alone understand.  You might wonder why anyone that wasn’t a financial analyst or regulator would want to read this stuff, but that would be missing the point.  The point is, that the annual report is supposed to communicate business results and other relevant information to stakeholders (not just shareholders) to make decisions.  Decisions are impeded when the information needed to make them is clouded in a secret code of accountant and legal speak.

Take a look at the last legal contract you signed.  Maybe it was a lease for an apartment.  Maybe it was a contract for work to be done to your home.  Either way, I bet that if you compared the length and language to that of 20 years ago, you would be offended at the amount of trees killed and ink spilled in the modern creation.  There aren’t many things that really require a lawyer, if you get right down to it.  Our society has just created enormous complexities because a select few realize that by creating the complexity they can pull the wool over everyone else’s eyes for their own benefit.

Have you looked at your extended vehicle or iPod warranty lately?  If you haven’t, let me save you some time: if anything goes wrong with it, it’s probably your fault and not covered in the warranty.  In the rare, cataclysmic event that the thing that went wrong is really the fault of the manufacturer, it is your responsibility to prove it and if you do, you have to wait 8-12 weeks for your situation to be remedied.

You might discern that from reading the indefinite small print that we have all the product liability lawyers out there over the years for coming up with it to justify their billing.

2. Business Compliance with Government Regulators

Those of you that are business owners or managers will definitely know what I mean on this.   I know that “we don’t have it as bad in America as other countries” when it comes to Big Brother looking over our shoulder,  however, there is a difference between smart regulation (a registered oxymoron) and ribbons of red tape that do nothing but confuse and dillute value.  The last time I tried to set up a payroll (before I started outsourcing virtually all administrative tasks for my business), it took me several hours to weed through all of the paperwork necessary to get it started.  Once I got it started, it took several more hours each week to keep it up.  Then, to top it all off, when I ended it (sold business), it took at least a dozen more hours to shut it off.  I contined to get notices of delinquent taxes due from both federal and state regulatory bodies.

The million dollar question here is:  why can’t the damn payroll form be ONE PAGE?  Instead, it’s got to be maze of “check this box, then go here, check that box, go there, etc.” I don’t here anything being talked about in this enormous waste of taxpayer money (aka the Stimulus Bill) that will go toward making things easier and less complicated for business owners and managers to deal with the government.

If you’ve ever raised outside capital for a business (outside of family and friends), than you have likely come into contact with the securities law.  While raising capital for my real estate business several months ago, I became ensnared in the vagaries of how the federal and state governments intertwine, overlap and promulgate the Securities Act of 1933 and the Uniform Securites Act.

Now, don’t get me wrong: I see and understand that we need measures in place to protect the average person from the Charles Ponzi’s and Bernie Madoff’s of the world.  However, in the process of this the baby is often thrown out with the bath water. There is enough language  in all of these laws to virtually scare anyone but a securities lawyer away from doing anything with securities.  In case you didn’t notice, securities lawyers are some of the most expensive ones to hire.   Billable rates of the 600+ per hour are routine.  It is almost to the point where if  you aren’t raising over $10,000,000 at once that it isn’t worth it to raise capital from non-family and friends.  Is this really what we need in America to encourage entrepreneurship, creativity and innovation?  That no small businesses should raise small amounts of capital from outsiders?  What if there was a $500 per person limit? Or, increase the regulations in accordace with the amount of capital raised, etc?

I think that the over-complexities in this area create absolutely zero net economic benefit and, in fact, deduct from the creative capacities of American entrepreneurs.  Once again, a few people over-complicate to pull the wool over the eyes of the layman so that they may extract dollars from the layman’s pocket.

3. Dealing with Incentives and Incentive Clauses

Have you ever hired a commission sales person?  Have you ever tried to work with an employee or independent contractor who had ‘performance-based’ incentives?  If so, this will hit close to home.

Many moons ago, I worked as a sales person at GNC (General Nutrition Center) while in college.  It was the perfect job.  I got to make money, get a discount on vitamin supplements and read weightlifting and nutrition magazines in between customers.  On top of all of this, I was paid minimum wage plus commission.  Commissions were paid a set dollar amount for certain products sold.  At that time, GNC’s private label brands received higher commissions than the other brands and selling a ‘Gold Card’ (what was then a first Tuesday of the month 20% discount) was a high commission earner ($5 per card sold).

Now, let’s take a breath for a second and look at the incentive here.  What would a young guy do that was hungry to make a few bucks?  Sell the multi-vitamin that was $5 less to the customer or sell the product that was $5 more but has a $2 commission? You probably guessed right.  Sell the GNC brand multi-vitamin I did - boatloads of them.  I could have probably saved some of the customers more money, but that wouldn’t have made me any money.  The customers, most of them, were none the wiser.  They assumed that the suggestions I gave them were the ones that were best for them.

Ok, now, lets take a a look at a very famous and close-to-home example of a similar situation of incentives and the problems they can cause in your every day life: selling your home.

When most people sell their home, they hire a real estate agent.  The agent lists the house on the MLS, tells a bunch of people about it, shows it to prospective buyers, and so on.  Finally, they get an interested buyer.  You are asking $200,000 for your house.  The buyer offers $180,000.   What to do?

Your first inclination as seller might be to make a counter-offer or to pass and wait for an offer closer to your asking price.  But, your agent has other ideas.  The agent encourages you to take the offer, they mention that a better one might not come along for a while.  Here is what is going on in your agent’s mind:

Selling Price: $180,000

Commission (6%): $10,800

or…

Selling Price: $190,000

Commission (6%): $11,400

Unless the market is RED HOT, the agent is probably not going to want to jeopardize a sure-fire payday of $10,800 for a measly $600 gain.  However, the difference to you (the seller) is a $9,400 ($10,000 higher selling price less 6% commission).  This is the power of underestimating the complexities that come with incentives.  The agent has a strong vested interest in selling at $180,000 - and urges you to do the same.   Just like the GNC employee.

When you look at or encounter incentive-based situations in your everyday business or personal life, it would benefit you to slash through all the B.S. and look at the alignment of incentives.  If you are running into a problem with an employee, take a look at their incentives.  Most employees get paid to show up, do the job, and go home.  The business owner gets frustrated when the employee doesn’t go the extra mile, stay late, make the additional customer call.  The business owner further thinks that there may be some sort of moral problem or other issue.  The business owner spends valuable time thinking about the causes of the employees acting ‘at the margin’ when they need look no further than the incentive.

How about the issue causing the current ‘credit market crunch?’  Is is really a problem of indefinite causes (housing for everyone from the Clinton presidency, bad mortgage brokers, bad underwriters, shady appraisers, shady title companies, crooks, politicians, cheap money, etc.)?  I think it is simply a matter of what people were incentivized to do.  They were incentivized, at every level, to do exactly what they did.  There were no incentives for the behavior that would have led to an orderly market correction.  The guys on one side made billions while the guys paid to prevent it made thousands. The Wall St. guy goes home at 10:00 at night.  The Fed. regulator goes home at 5:00- do the math.

————–

As I descend from my soapbox. I feel a bit lighter of burden but strongly galvanized in a quest to seek simplicity when situations seem overly complex.  It has worked for me many times to strip as much of the B.S. away as I can and focus on the bare bones of the issue.  For example, when looking at a recent real estate deal, I found myself getting caught up in the probabilities of certain scenarios playing out; caught up with the variables in play and what would happen if A, B or C.  Suddenly, I stopped for a moment, shut off my computer, pulled out some scratch paper and a pencil, remembered some second grade math, came up with my number for the deal and my sanity promptly returned.  Like magic.

Give SIMPLE a shot.

Nov42008

Tuesday Top 5: 5 Options in Our Wild and Crazy Times

These are indeed some wild and crazy times we are living in - especially if you are in the real estate or financial fields. Utter chaos and turmoil rule the day.  Part of me wishes John Wayne would ride in on horseback, just for effect.

As I keep my ear to the ground, this is what I am hearing:

Should I buy stocks or go into cash?

Should we buy a house or keep renting?

Will I have my job next week/month/quarter?

Will I ever be able to retire?

Add to these a heavy dose of uncertainty and you have a perfect recipe for mass amounts of people looking for their next move.

In the spirit of fun and learning, I thought that I would offer up a few nuggets of what I think five clear cut options you have as an entrepreneur/investor are right now.

1. Run for the hills

You could hole up in a cave, mount some machine gun nests and wait for the rioting and looting to ensue.  Usually, if you want to make money this is not the best idea.

2. Yearn for the past

Most of the other people that aren’t running for this hills or participating in the ostrich look-alike contest are fondly reminiscing about the days of yore.  Things were good for a long time for people in many different industries.  Mortgage brokers used to be able to almost literally print money.  Blank checks were handed out to financial planners and stock brokers (in the forms of commissions and fees).   Auto companies used to be able to piston SUV’s and pickup trucks off of assembly lines and watch their wallets expand.

While this was all well and good, it is now part of the past.  Evolution and change are the rule of the day in business.  Well, they always were, it was just a matter of it being practiced.

3. Learn a lesson or two

There  are plenty of things we can learn from what has happened in the credit, stock and real estate markets in recent months and the events that are currently taking place.

“Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”  - George Santayana

For the entrepreneurs and investors still standing, this quote should burn into our mind that we should never get so far ahead of ourselves as to think that we are invincible.  I knew more than a few companies and individuals who thought the music was never going to stop (just like in 2000, when dot-coms became dot-bombs).

Life is a constant shakeup of learning and doing.

4. Tackle New Opportunities

Since the apocalypse is not yet upon us (despite Sports Illustrated magazine’s lobbying), there are no doubt new opportunities to make money in industries that are currently decimated.  Think: housing, auto’s, mortgage.  What shape this will take I don’t yet know.  Could new, niche focused portfolio lenders pop up to fill gaping holes in the mortgage market?  Will the upstart auto companies popping up like weeds in Silicon Valley usurp the global auto powers that be?  (I mean..come on, can GM hold out that much longer?  Glad I dumped my shares a few years ago).

When the tide finally retreats back to the sea, we will all look around and realize that not everyone has been swimming naked.

5. Vote

Since election day is upon us, it would be very patriotic of me to neglect to mention that the polls are open and you (well, those citizens of the U.S. who enjoy the privilege of voting) might be well served to pull the lever for the future you want to see.  I encourage you to get down and dirty and learn what I call the ‘micro-politics’ of your municipal and state governments.  Find out who your local judges, prosecutors, city council members and other elected officials are.  These people will impact your life more than the newly income president and vice president will.

Think about: keeping criminals off your neighborhood streets, approving new businesses into your city or town, changing the tax code to make it more/less favorable to businesses or homeowners.

—————-

Alright, now for a shameless self-plug.

My business partner, Dylan Tanaka and I will be resuming our real estate video blog at MiRealEstate.tv.

Keep your eyes open tomorrow for brand new episodes.

Oct132008

Fear and Greed, good to see you are a live and well

“We always try to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

-Warren Buffett

buffett

It’s not a big stretch to see that a lot of the world is afraid right now.  For example, take a look at some recent news headline snapshots:

“Searching for ways to tackle the unfolding economic crisis…

“Market Crash Shakes World”

If you had taken a nap like Rip Van Winkle  a year ago and woke up today, here is what you would find:

  • Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns out of business
  • AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned by Uncle Sam
  • The Dow Jones Industrial average down 40%

Perhaps you would just like to go back to sleep for another year and wake up to hopefully find things in less of a state of absolute pandemonium.

Alas, if you did that, you would probably miss out on one of the largest wealth building opportunities in your lifetime.

Dovetailing the opening quote by Mr. Buffett (a reasonably successful investor!), the time to ‘get in’ is when pessimism and uncertainty are running high - just as they are right now.  When hoards of investors and consumers are scared and cynical, they aren’t looking at the true intrinsic value of investment opportunities are not making logical decisions.  Emotion (read: fear) is driving their actions and pushes the real value of investments below their true worth.

yinyang

Take the asset class that I like the most right now: real estate.   I don’t think that you’ll find a more out of favor sector of the entire U.S. economy.  The credit crisis and foreclosure tidal wave have all but extinguished even the most resilient of investors hopes for a comeback in the near future.  However, select investments do make sense in both the short and long term.  For example, take look at the following deal breakdown for a single family home deal in Roseville, Michigan (one of the cities in Metro Detroit where my real estate firm purchases bank owned homes):

Purchase price: $20,000

Repair Cost:  $10,000

Total Cost Basis: $30,000

Annual Net Cash Flow (allowing for repairs, vacancy, capital improvements and all operating expenses): $3,600

Now, even if you strip out the idea that the house is worth more than $30,000 from a comparative market value standpoint and you strip out the idea that the house will ever appreciate in value (both of these are extremes, but bear with me), you are looking at purchasing an asset at a price of about 8.3 times annual cash flow.  In stock parlance - this would be like buying a company at 8.3 times earnings, or a P/E ratio of 8.3.

Considering the fact that the S&P 500 (a broad market indicator) is trading at roughly 18 times earnings (P/E ratio of 18), you can see that real estate is not necessarily the bastard asset class across the board that much of the media would like you to believe.  In fact, if you throw any semblance of long term price appreciation in the mix, combined with any benefit of income from real estate being more tax efficient (not always a given)- you have a strong performing asset.

–>  you will not that I left the idea of leverage out of the equation in this analysis for a more ‘apples-to-apples’ comparison

Right now, I think there are some great buys on the stock market side of things as well.  Cyclical stocks are going to be out of favor right now (think: steel makers and home builders).  Among others, I think this is a great time to grab stocks like Nucor Steel (NUE) and KB Homes (KBH).  I have owned Nucor for over 4 years now and could launch into a few reasons to buy, outside of the fact that their shares have been pummeled by the fear mongering of late.  KBH is trading for less than its net tangible asset value - meaning  you could (theoretically) purchase the entire company and liquidate it and at least make your investment back.  This is a relatively rare occurance in the modern stock market.

Since this is not a stock picking blog or real estate blog, I will not opine further.  I only use these examples to illustrate that one can profit from all of the madness going on right now by just looking at the horizon and not at everyone else’s head under the ground.

As is plainly evidenced, fear and greed will always play a dominant role in investment decisions.  The question is: which side will you be on?

————————————

For those in the Metro Detroit area interested in learning more about real estate investing, the industry or what is going on in general in the marketplace right now, the upcoming Real Estate Investors Association of Macomb (REIA of Macomb) is going to be great.  Than Merrill of the A&E show Flip This House is going to be on hand to razzle and dazzle with his tremendous knowledge and investing techniques.  Meet people from around the area who are of like mind and occupation.  Go to the website to learn more.

———————————-

I also encourage anyone who wants to learn more about successful investing (of any kind) to read the compilation of letters that Warren Buffett writes to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders each year.  Go here to download some good reading.

Sep232008

Someday things will change…right?

For anyone paying attention to what has transpired in the financial markets in the last week, you know that we could discuss for eternity the short and long term implications of everything from government intervention to the value of the greenback.

I have no such interest.

There comes a point in time where you must admit the lack of control you have over many factors that intimately affect your life.  The latest events on Wall Street over the past week are an example of this.  This does not mean that we cannot adjust and improvise, and capitalize accordingly, it simply means that our boats, however large, will be tossed and pushed to an fro whether we like it or not.

One thing we can take away from this latest financial debacle is the old axiom: “the more things change the more they stay the same.”  Consider this:

  • in the 1990’s as the “new economy” was booming, it was “different this time” was the prevailing wisdom as the stock markets soared to dizzying heights, and people rushed in with investment dollars
  • in 1998, a hedge fund managed by Nobel Prize winners and math genius’ imploded and almost took the financial system down with it - they claimed they were different because they could mathematically eliminate risk from their portfolio
  • in 1929, flush with money from the roaring 20’s, investors were betting big with borrowed funds on the stock market - in spite of past market panics and margin calls, it was different for them
  • in 1971, President Nixon implemented wage and price controls, designed to tame 6% inflation and there were a great many who thought “temporary” wage and price controls could cure inflation - it will be different this time, they thought.  By 1974 the U.S. inflation rate had reached double digits

Apparently it was going to be different this last time as well, with subprime mortgages, credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations.

Different indeed.

To take away something different from this most recent market meldown would be like saying that we have ignored history repeating itself over and over again.

Be ready for the next one.

Aug72008

Nuclear Fallout - Mortgage Mess Continues to Pummel Average Joe

cloud1

Here’s a scenario for you:

A stranger comes up to you and asks to borrow some money. You have the ability to make the $5,000 loan being requested. The stranger can’t provide you with much information. They are vague about what their job is, how much money they make and how they will be able to repay the loan. They don’t have any assets to speak of. But they “promise” that they are going to repay the loan.

Does it sound like a good idea to make this loan?

If you said “yes,” then congratulations, you have what it takes to be a modern day finance company.

Now, you get to CLAIM YOUR PRIZE: Billions of dollars of losses!!!!

It used to be the job of banks and finance companies to ferret out the bad borrowers - you know, doing their best to solve the old adverse selection/moral hazard problem. From the huge mess we have in our financial markets right now, it seems as though all the computer algorithms that they had drawn up to make lending decisions did way worse than a monkey could have done in releasing funds to borrowers who were never going to make a payment.

_____________________________________

Finance giant and investment bank Morgan Stanley has just announced that they will “freeze” all of their clients’ home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). While the company isn’t releasing much information about this as of yet, one can speculate that the main reason for this is that the values of homes have dropped so much over the past 12 months that the equity being borrowed against is no longer there.

Hmmmm…

Knowing what we know about how many Average Joe’s and Jane’s use their homes like ATM machines, taking out equity to buy everything from new cars to vacations and plasma T.V.’s, it isn’t hard to see how further changes like this in the lending markets are going to make for a very lean Christmas this year in many homes.

punch1

This is likely troubling for consumer spending, since much of it relies on the “2 C’s:” confidence and credit. The mortgage and finance companies, who used to woo Average Joe with tantalizing offers of cheap and easy credit, are now gunning for him. It seems every dollar of red ink is stained with the blood of Average Joe’s and Jane’s across America.

If I could rub an old lamp and give orders to my genie, I would wish for ‘normal’ lending standards to return to the market - you know, like it used to be before things got absolutely nuts and ghosts started getting financing for leaving some residue on the wall.

genie1

Jul312008

Singing the $8.7 Billion Blues

Henry Ford is rolling over in his grave right now. Ford Motor Company recently posted a quarterly loss of $8.7 billion. That’s right, billion with a “B.” It’s a staggering, mind boggling, head scratching sum.

How can a company lose $8.7 billion in a single quarter and still stay in business? For the sake of the economy here in Southeast Michigan, I hope that Ford is able to implement their turnaround plan. If not, I hate to speculate what the outcome will be.

forksign

Speaking of this, haven’t these auto companies been ‘turning around’ for the past 5 years or so? Anyway…

Being involved in residential real estate investment here in Metro Detroit, this news definitely makes me bi-polar. On the manic side, I can see more foreclosures and distressed properties coming to market, driving prices down and presenting better deals. On the depressed side, I see more unemployment, more housing inventory driving rents down and more blight taking hold.

There are indeed two sides to every coin.

For anybody doing business here in Metro Detroit (or anywhere for that matter), I present this to you as the most compelling reason to develop a global business model. Being geographically dependent on your customers and suppliers (as Southeast Michigan is so dependent upon domestic based auto manufacturing) is a non-starter. As a 21st century business, you must learn to tap into the power of a worldwide customer and supplier base.

It has been said that, in business, you are either growing or dying.

The best part of this is that we have a choice; we can succumb to the pressures of economic change or we can make our peace with them and adapt.

As always, history will be the judge and jury.

gavel

Jul112008

Too Big to Fail? What the Heck is Really Going On?

godzilla

Since just about every other blogger under the sun has weighed in on the pending financial meltdown that an insolvent Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would create in the global credit markets - I feel compelled to throw my hat in the ring as well (what better thing to do when getting buzzed on caffeine at Caribou coffee on a Friday night?).

Many of you are probably familiar with the “too big to fail” tag that has been attached to some large financial institutions in times of trouble, most recently Bear Stearns. This tag has been thrown on the Government Sponsored Entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in recent days as their stock values have plummeted and their financial woes have raised eyebrows across the world. “Too big to fail” means that the government should step in and prevent an institution from failing so as to preserve the greater good of the public.

I can tell you first hand, from an entrepreneur’s standpoint, that having the credit markets get worse right now would be bad news for me and a lot of my brethren. I know that the age-old argument of government interference in private enterprise is alive and well here, but I can’t help but take a look at what the implications would be if financing real estate transactions slowed down further or the capital markets failed to function in getting companies from small to large the money they need to work and grow.

Our economy has become so overly dependent upon credit and liquidity to even operatethat things will really come to a standstill if big shocks occur. The speed with which markets react to information is stunning and it wouldn’t take long for banks and credit card companies to put the screws on small business owners - squeezing profits and impeding growth.

Much of the commentary about this situation right now is focused on big companies and Wall Street banks. The entrepreneur is left out of the discussion but not out of the equation. I think that something should be done from a cooperation standpoint between the governments and other institutions that are close to Fannie and Freddie. We can’t afford to go ‘cold turkey’ in changing our credit dependency overnight - we need to enter rehab first and work it out of our system.

I am hoping and praying for sanity during this whole mess. Though I am confident that things will work themselves out over the long term, the short term will mean pain for somebody, portfolio companies, pension funds, investors, etc.

We can only look forward and learn from what is going on right now and eliminate the ‘irrational exhuberence’ that has once again penalized investors and, most likely taxpayers, again.

“I can calculate the movements of heavenly bodies but not the madness of men.”

Sir Isaac Newton